Here is some thing: Although you kind of left the Odessa pact ( Inactivity kinda triggered me there )
Germany is still kinda not prepared. 1939 has to be the best year for germany to at least give a powerful punch against its neighbors. Your departure will make everything slower, but it is still inevitable that germany would capitulate but it is still unknown for the fate of italy. In 1936, Poland has at least some power to defend and cause attritious war against the germans. And since this WW2 makes the wermacht fight in multiple fronts, They will be oofed. THe Germans may have some manpower mustered but are still having oil shortages because of no Molotov - Rippentrop Pact.
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